STOP BARKING UP THE WRONG TREE NAJIB & ZAHID: URBAN TSUNAMI – CHINESE & MALAY – IS HERE TO STAY, PERAK MAY FALL AGAIN

Chinese-majority parties in BN claim that Chinese voters have returned to BN.

Having seen the massive crowds at Pakatan Harapan’s rallies so far, I start to feel skeptical about the claim.

If there are any Chinese voters returning to BN, the number is believed to be insignificant.

From the response at PH rallies in both the northern and southern regions, it is obvious that many Chinese Malaysians will still support the opposition this time round.

If they are only there to listen to PH leaders cursing BN, then the impressive turnout is nothing to shout about. But, they also make donations and display powerful passion. These are the people you will least believe will return to BN.

DAP national organizing secretary Anthony Loke has said that in the last general elections, public enthusiasm began to be felt only after the nomination day, and the early display of political frenzy this time has been unprecedented.

On-the-spot donations collected at PH’s recent rallies have exceeded RM10,000 in each event. More than RM20,000 was collected in Batu Pahat and about RM11,000 in Segamat.

MCA and Gerakan Rakyat have made the assumption that Chinese voters are returning to BN based on the results of Sarawak state elections and the twin by-elections in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar in 2016.

But things have changed over the past two years. There have been new developments on the 1MDB scandal, and the effects of 6% GST are building up in force. Even rural residents begin to feel the tremendous financial burden on their shoulders.

Despite the 20-month low 1.3% CPI growth in March, international oil prices continue its upward swing, pushing up goods prices before Malaysians go to the polls next month.

Politically speaking, even one day is long enough to bring dramatic changes, let alone two long years.

Indeed, MCA and Gerakan have been working very hard in the past few years, including getting the government to agree to build ten new SJKCs and relocate six micro SJKCs, and for BN to consider recognizing UEC for the first time in its election manifesto.

It is not because they have not done enough, or the Selangor and Penang PH governments are exceptionally good, but majority of Chinese Malaysians are simply too disappointed with the federal government over several national issues.

Meanwhile, PH continues to be plagued by several unfavorable issues such as corruption allegations against its leaders, dropping the diligent incumbent Skudai assemblyman Boo Cheng Hau, not fielding a strong candidate to contest Labis parliamentary seat, all-out war against MCA triggering backlash among some quarters believing DAP is trying to wipe out rival Chinese political leaders, and four ex-DAP reps challenging the party in the coming general elections, among others.

However, these negative factors cannot stop DAP from its “king versus king” strategy in order to change the existing federal government.

There was this pendulum theory in the past arguing that Chinese voters might fall for the opposition in one election, and BN in the next. But, Chinese Malaysians have voted overwhelmingly for the opposition for two consecutive general elections, and indeed many have decided that they are going to do the same in GE14. To them, the BN government’s pro-China policy, Chinese-friendly education measures and services no longer matter.

In the 2013 general elections, they even supported PAS which has been fervently advocating the hudud. And now, they even don’t mind embracing former PM Tun Mahathir who once called the local Chinese associations communists.

For the sake of toppling the BN government, Chinese Malaysians are no longer concerned about Chinese representation in the cabinet. After seeing throngs of rural folks and Felda settlers at PH rallies, their faith in bringing down the BN government gets a significant boost.

It is utterly important for PH to secure at least 80% of support from Chinese voters. This is particularly important at a time the Malay votes are thinned out as a result of division.

PKR vice president Rafizi Ramli has predicted that PH could win in under-70% Malay constituencies and wrestle the Perak state administration from BN if the opposition pact manages to get 80% of Chinese and 50% of Indian support.

There are eight or nine state constituencies in Perak with more than 30% non-Malay voters, and PH only needs to capture three more seats to win the state.

Perhaps the overwhelming support of the opposition among Chinese Malaysians cannot be squarely described as a “Chinese tsunami”, as it reflects the collective psychology of urban folks who are more concerned about national issues, and whether government policies have been fair, rational or democratic.

As such, the power of urban tsunami is here to stay in next month’s elections.

– Mysinchew