This is why Umno always has the advantage

“An empty stomach is not a good political adviser.”

- Albert Einstein

There are only two kinds of politicians. The first, the kind who knows what is really going on and wants to profit from it and the second, who knows what is really going on and wants to change it. Please do not assume that the former is Umno/BN and the latter is the opposition. That would be a mistake.

I have to admit, of late I find myself estranged from mainstream oppositional politics. I have really no interest in the 1MDB corruption scandal because I know that we are already a “global kleptocracy” (have been for some time ) and that the Umno hegemon is doing everything in its power to retain its death grip on Malaysia.

In my last piece, I wrote - “Opposition politicians operating in the rural heartlands tell me that this obsession with urban issues has absolutely no traction in their communities and makes Umno’s job easier because it makes it seem that the urban elite - meaning us - have no idea what is going on where they live except to think of them as lazy and ignorant.”

I was surprised how many young Malay activists wrote to me - in English and Malay - and how many of them referenced the same article by Jeyakumar Devaraj, the honourable Member of Parliament from Sungai Siput, titled - ‘Let’s Avert a Complete Rout of the Opposition in PRU 14' - which is a snapshot analysis of Malay poverty.

I had this particular article buried in my notes and was supposed to write about it but of course something else cropped up and this particular piece was relegated to the backburner. While the good doctor and I came from very different ideological stances, it is safe to say that this particular Member of Parliament knows what is going on and is determined to change it.

It is getting close to the big roll of the dice and everyone is making dire predictions. Jeyakumar makes the same warning but his misgives are grounded in the hard reality of the daily lives of the people that PSM and him, work for.

In the piece he gives various reasons why Barsian National may not only win but regain a two-thirds majority focusing on what he thinks is the most important reason - “The failure of the opposition coalition to address honestly the fact that Malay support for the Pakatan Rakyat declined between 2008 and 2013. This was clearly shown in analyses of voting trends in Kedah, Kelantan, Perak and Kota Raja.”

He continues - “So why did rural Malay support decline for the Pakatan Rakyat? Why were the rural Malays more susceptible to BN propaganda? I would have thought that this should be a burning issue that the leaders of the opposition focus on, analyse and come to some consensus as to how to deal with. But we are not seeing this.”

A social and strategic issue

Now what is important to remember here is two points - (1) The honourable gentleman from Sungai Siput, specifically mentions “leaders of the opposition” and (2) this is a social issue and a strategic issue. What this means is the issue here is specifically about rural Malay poverty and how this affects their voting patterns.

I am painfully aware that there are Orang Asal, Chinese and Indian poor and the issue of poverty goes beyond “race” but this issue is about a much maligned - in oppositional discourse - demographic and ultimately about how Umno but more importantly the opposition is failing them, when they are the majority of the marginalised demographic that the opposition claims to serve.

Hence Jeyakumar ask the big question, “...rural Malays are aware of corruption and misuse of power by Umno. But clearly, for them, a corrupt Umno is a safer bet than the Pakatan Rakyat. Why?”

Besides his own detailed analysis of the situation - and there is a voluminous amount to read - he summarises it cogently by what Dr Wong Chin Huat, said in paper at a PSM congress - “Pakatan Rakyat hasn’t yet clearly articulated how it is going to deal with rural Malay poverty. The BN system of subsidies and provision of infrastructure has not resolved the problem.

“If the Pakatan Rakyat proceeds to cut back on NEP-type programmes (what some Malays fear will happen if the Pakatan Rakyat takes over), wouldn’t the Malay poor in the country side be in a worse off situation?”

While I have publically disagreed with Dr Wong on his whole “cultural literacy” point, having read what he has to say, I can only nod my head in agreement and wonder why nobody else in Pakatan Rakyat is making this a central policy issue or as the Jeyakumar says - “Until the opposition elevates the issue of persistent rural poverty as a central issue that the opposition is committed to resolve, we can say goodbye to rural Malay voters in GE14, and given the extra weightage of rural seats, it’s quite a big number.”

Jeyakumar, whose political career and activism work are not mutually exclusive, as is the case with many Malaysian politicians, argues that the main cause of rural poverty is,

(1) Unemployment

(2) The reality of undocumented foreign workers and the resulting lowering of wages and job opportunity

(3) The feudalistic culture which dominates aid programmes - “Unfortunately, the manner in which this aid is given is opaque. The rural poor, the target population, are not informed of the actual allocation for the project in their kampong, its actual specifications, the quantum of the contracts awarded, etc. The poor communities are not in any position to monitor the execution of these projects.

“In the absence of proper checks and balances, officers from the ministry concerned, the local district officer and his staff, the politically connected contractors and the local Umno assemblyperson and Member of Parliament collectively siphon off a significant portion of the funds allocated. This portion can come up to 50 percent of the actual sum allocated.”

And this is Jeyakumar, so he does not only list down the problems he also list down practical solutions for these problems. Mind you, there are many who would argue that because of PSM’s ideological bent, there would be “opposition” to such ideas, and I have no doubt, considering the capitalist bent of mainstream opposition culture, all these solutions would be dismissed as fringe policy and not something that should be considered, since the goal of removing Najib is paramount.

Discourse dominated by political hacks

The reality is that instead of discussing these issues and asking the hard policies questions that could tilt the Malay vote in the opposition’s favour, the discourse is dominated by political hacks who wish to make political capital of perceived Sino-Malay tensions, religious agitations and now regional geo-politics.

While I have always maintained that - “The goal of the opposition should be to ensure that people are not reliant on political parties or government policies that appear to favour them. It may take some time to get to that better place, but it is better than going nowhere fast” - this does not mean that I do not think that we cannot address social and in some cases racial, issues with an election strategy in mind.

So when I read that one of the first things a new opposition government is going to do is chase down every penny of the 1MDB fiasco, I cringe because this exactly the kind of issue that plays well in the echo chambers but has no real impact on the lives of the people that the opposition desperately needs to win over.

And this is why Umno will always have the advantage.

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S THAYAPARAN is Commander (Rtd) of the Royal Malaysian Navy.- Mkini