Is Najib an asset or a liability to Umno and Barisan Nasional?

Datuk Seri Najib Razak is facing what no other prime minister in Malaysia has ever faced: international scrutiny as a result of investigations by five countries involving people close to him, a domestic economic situation that is worsening, strong voices of dissent from key government officials and former national leaders, and blatant taunting by the public. All at the same time.

How long he can withstand these pressures is hard to say. Time will tell whether Umno finds him ineffective or a liability. How close is Umno to this view? The unresolved matters below may give an indication.

Unresolved matter #1 – Division within Umno

There has been a series of people being moved within Umno.

Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir was recently forced to resign as the Kedah chief minister  after losing the support of the state assembly. This has been seen as Umno strengthening itself in the northern state and also nationally.

The majority of the state assemblymen are Umno members who are aligned to Najib. Mukhriz has previously criticised the party president. He is also the son of former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who happens to be one of the fiercest critics of Najib.

On the surface of things, Najib appears to have developed a stronger grip on his party. The removal of Mukhriz, however, has driven a wider wedge in Umno between Najib’s supporters and those opposing him.

Already, there are Umno grassroots members in the key southern state of Johor who have been muttering under their breath over the removal of Johorean Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin as deputy prime minister last July.  Muhyiddin however, has not been removed as Umno deputy president.

Along with the removal of Muhyiddin, Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, from Sabah, was also removed from his post in the Cabinet. Again, Shafie was not removed as Umno vice-president. Earlier, in May 2014, Terengganu’s chief minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Said was removed causing a furore among Umno members in the east-coast state.

In the end, Umno is still very state-centric in how power is structured. Removal of a leader from a state is regarded as a slight against Umno members and leaders of that state. The feelings run deep at the grassroots level.

Najib cannot afford to divide Umno any further at this time. He needs a truly unified Umno that will stand by him. This means he needs not just the support of the 191 division leaders in whose hands lies the fate of the president, but the Umno grassroots. (Party officials are elected by the 191 division leaders.)

Unresolved matter #2 – Economic uncertainty eating at support

The economic malaise hanging over the country does not help Najib’s position as prime minister and finance minister.

The majority of the 1.6 million civil servants are Malays. In December 2014, the government imposed a hiring freeze for the civil service affecting thousands entering the job market. To give an indication of the kind of numbers involved: in 2014 alone, there were 26,000 new appointments in the civil service.

Jobs in the private sector are limited because businesses are languishing in the slower global economic environment and fall in commodity prices. This year is likely to bring more job freezes and retrenchments in the private sector.

The escalating cost of living and the goods and services tax (GST) are making it even harder for many to make ends meet. With a good majority of the 3.5 million Umno members being either civil servants or business people, it is going to be a highly challenging year for Najib. He has to make sure Umno grassroots are able to cope.

Unresolved matter #3 – Key officials’ discontent

A few weeks ago, when the Attorney-General (A-G) Tan Sri Mohamed Apandi Ali announced his decision to close investigations into the RM2.6 billion (US$620 million) found in the prime minister’s personal bank accounts, the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) asked for a review of the decision. The MACC has issued a string of statements previously to respond to the investigation and this is simply the latest.

In August last year, several MACC officers were questioned over leaked information on the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) probe. Two officers were ordered transferred to the Prime Minister’s Department. After a public furore, the transfer order was rescinded three days later.

Prior to this, other government officials were removed or transferred. This generated much skepticism among the public.

In July, Tan Sri Abdul Gani Patail was removed as attorney-general citing his poor health. No reason was given for the transfer of Special Branch deputy director Hamid Bador to the Prime Minister’s Office too. Hamid Bador had, prior to the transfer order, criticised the way the government handled the 1MDB matter.

Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz has emphasised on a few occasions that the 1MDB saga requires some explanation. – Asean Today, 

* Vanitha Nadaraj is the Malaysian correspondent for Asean Today.