Can anger translate into numbers at Bersih 4?

Bersih 4 organisers are confident of attracting the same large crowds it gathered in past rallies. – Bersih 2.0 Facebook pic, August 22, 2015.

With the Bersih 4 rally a week away, there are worries that a crackdown on dissent and the fragmented political opposition will see a lower turnout at the gathering organised by the country’s most prominent civil society group.

Opposition parties DAP, PKR, and PAS splinter group GHB, who support Bersih 4 have issued the call to muster as many of their members at rallies in Kuala Lumpur, Kota Kinabalu and Kuching from August 29 to 30.

The rally's demands this time are for clean government, election reforms, the right to protest and measures to save the economy.

The rally has also been likened by organiser, Bersih 2.0, as a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, whose alleged involvement in a financial scandal amid claims of a cover-up is causing political instability and lowering investor confidence.

Bersih rallies in the past could count on numbers mobilised by opposition parties for a good turnout, but party leaders now admit it is challenge to get non-card carrying members out this time around compared to Bersih 2 and 3, in 2011 and 2012, respectively, due to Putrajaya’s more intolerant stand towards public dissent.

Independent researcher Ibrahim Suffian said there are signs that the country’s economic problems may not be bad enough to drive people out on to the streets during the Merdeka weekend.

Not like Bersih 3

Ibrahim argued that Bersih rallies in the past, especially its third in 2012, succeeded in attracting large crowds because of the wide mobilisation of members and opposition supporters.

This explains the rally's sheer size that year, with estimates of up to 300,000 people flooding Dataran Merdeka and the surrounding areas, even though the economy then was better.

“Large turnouts usually tend to coincide with a distressed economy. Even though there are concerns about the economy now, unemployment is still low and people can still survive,” said Ibrahim, who heads pollster Merdeka Center.

Bersih 3 was huge because it was also a solidarity gathering for a united Pakatan Rakyat (PR), the now-defunct opposition coalition, that was marching towards Putrajaya behind its prime minister-designate Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

The general election was held the following year, in May 2013.

A good chunk of protesters who turned up then were from PAS, the largest party in the former PR and the country’s second largest political party with close to one million members nationwide.

PAS's Unit Amal members were largely in charge of crowd control at Bersih rallies in the past. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, August 22, 2015.PAS is no longer part of PR, following differences with its allies. Its leaders have issued conflicting statements about whether members should attend Bersih 4, and this could lead to fewer members going this year.

“The signal (on whether to go) from the president (Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang) is not clear. He may not forbid members to go but he’s saying PAS is not going to support it,” said a PAS Youth leader who requested anonymity.

In the end, members may err on the side of caution and not go, careful not to anger the president, he said.

Although leaders of GHB have committed themselves to rallying their supporters, who are essentially still PAS members, their reach is limited because PAS has forbidden members to attend the group’s programmes.

“GHB also cannot just order their supporters to go because they are just a movement, not a registered party or organisation,” said the PAS Youth leader, adding that GHB has been promoting the rally at its nationwide roadshows.

Anger overcoming fear

For PKR, members have not only been ordered to go, they are also actively distributing leaflets at markets to get as many people to show up.

“We are also putting up banners where we can and assuring people that it is a peaceful rally. We’re doing what we can to support Bersih,” said PKR vice-president Chua Tian Chang, better known as Tian Chua (pic, left).

A big challenge is the accusation that the rally is a plot to topple the government, he said, as people may be put off with the thought of getting arrested if they went.

This happened in several demonstrations earlier year and in 2014, such as the protests against the goods and services tax (GST) and the #KitaLawan rallies, where civil society leaders and speakers were picked up by police.

Despite the cloud of intimidation hanging over the Bersih 4 rally, Tian Chua said he was “modestly” confident of a good turnout, although he declined to predict a number.

Bersih 2.0 chairman Maria Chin Abdullah, however, said she was confident that just like in the past two rallies, people will ignore police threats and show up anyway.

“You will be surprised at how angry ordinary Malaysians are because nothing is being done to get us out of this crisis,” she said.

For Tian Chua, the previous crackdowns, and the response to them, give hope that people will attend Bersih 4.

“In the past, you see leaders being arrested before a rally. But the rally still went ahead.

“Arrests do not stop demonstrations anymore. Malaysians are no longer timid. If arrests happen before a rally, there will be more of a moral obligation to show up”.

- TMI