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Monday, June 15, 2015

Is a new opposition pact viable?

PAS's pro-Pakatan Rakyat faction PasMa says it wants to break away from the Islamist party to form a new coalition with PKR and DAP. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Seth Akmal, June 15, 2015.PAS's pro-Pakatan Rakyat faction PasMa says it wants to break away from the Islamist party to form a new coalition with PKR and DAP. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Seth Akmal, June 15, 2015.
A new opposition coalition without PAS to replace the moribund Pakatan Rakyat (PR) is viable and could capture the anger towards the Barisan Nasional (BN), but questions remain whether it can take over Putrajaya in the next polls.
Analysts argue that there is enough support on Peninsular Malaysia's west coast for another Muslim-majority party to replace PAS, a scenario that may develop following the Islamist party's move to cut ties with PR ally DAP.
The trick for this new party, however, is to defeat both the conservative Islamist party and Umno for those seats.
But the new opposition coalition should be formed soon so that voters have enough time to adjust to the new political landscape.
History unkind to splinter parties
On the surface, the history of splinter parties does not bode well for any new break-away entity.
Parti Negara, Semangat 46, Berjasa and Hamim are some of the well-known Malay-Muslim parties started by big names ousted from Umno or PAS, but which did not last beyond three elections.
But that has not dissuaded PasMa, the pro-PR faction in PAS, from advocating a new party and coalition given that the new PAS leadership seems bent on straining ties with PR allies.
The biggest problem for smaller parties, according Ibrahim Suffian who heads independent pollster Merdeka Center, is Malaysia’s first-past-the-post electoral system where the party with the most votes wins.
Pakatan Rakyat appears to be in disarray following strained ties between PAS and DAP. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, June 15, 2015.Pakatan Rakyat appears to be in disarray following strained ties between PAS and DAP. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, June 15, 2015.
Smaller parties would usually benefit from a proportional system where seats in Parliament can be assigned to a party based on its share of the total national vote, he said.
A new Muslim-Malay party would likely end up facing PAS and Umno in a contest, in which Umno could stand to benefit more, said Ibrahim, recalling the contests in Sungai Aceh and Kota Damansara state seats in the 13th general election in 2013.
“There is always a pro-BN vote and anti-BN vote,” said Ibrahim.
"So in a three-cornered fight between two anti-BN parties and a BN party, the anti-BN vote gets split so that’s why we see BN always winning in these contests.”
For a new party to stand a chance, he said, PAS needs to join with BN or be seen as part of a BN pact. When there are only two names on the ballot, the non-BN party could channel the anti-BN vote.
West coast Islamists?
The problem, according to Ibrahim and others, is that Umno is unlikely to invite PAS into BN and neither do they see PAS merging with the Malay party.
“It is disadvantageous for Umno because then they will have to negotiate with PAS on seats since they traditionally face each other in an election,” said Ibrahim.
Dr Wong Chin Huat of the Penang Institute argues that PAS risks alienating anti-BN voters if it joins Umno, while BN could lose whatever support it has among non-Muslims.
“Umno would more likely use an independent PAS to attack DAP and PKR to paint them as anti-Islam and anti-Malay,” said Wong, who heads the institute’s political and social analysis section.
He argues that based on voting trends since 1995, there is space in the west coast states for a Malay-Muslim party to rival PAS and Umno, considering PAS won seats in Selangor, Perak, Kedah and Perlis in the 1999 and 2008 elections due to protest votes from the “reformasi” and “tsunami” waves.
Nearly half (10 out of 27) of the parliamentary seats PAS won in 1999 and more than half (13 out of 23) of the seats won in 2008 were in west coast states, Wong said.
“And these were won when PAS was part of a national coalition,” said Wong (pic, right), adding that when it was not in a coalition in 2004, it won only one seat on the west coast.
This is a “growth area” where a new party can take root, said Wong, as it can harvest the considerable amount of anti-BN sentiment among a more multi-ethnic and urban demographic.
“If it forms a coalition with DAP and PKR, there’s a chance it could grab about 15 seats in this area.”
The bigger question is whether a new coalition could come to federal power in the next general election which has to be called by 2018.
This is since it will have to take on not just BN but an independent PAS, which is still the country’s second largest party by membership.
“It’s still possible given how Najib (Datuk Seri Najib Razak) is becoming increasingly unpopular and it depends how long it takes PR to re-align. I’m not ruling out the possibility but I’m not too optimistic.”
PAS MP, Khalid Samad, however, believes that the anti-BN wave in the next election will be big enough to overwhelm any third party that is not part of a national coalition.
“If PAS is not part of a coalition, it is going to be sidelined in the next election. People want a change in government and currently PR can’t do that because of all the squabbling.”
A new coalition, he argued, could ride the anti-BN wave to Putrajaya regardless as to whether PAS stands in its way or not.
- TMI

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