`


THERE IS NO GOD EXCEPT ALLAH
read:
MALAYSIA Tanah Tumpah Darahku

LOVE MALAYSIA!!!


 


Monday, June 22, 2015

Forget About PAS, Here’s How UMNO Could Lose Johor State

Sabah and Sarawak have been Barisan Nasional (BN) “fixed deposit”since independence in 1957, and it will remain so for the next 50-years, unfortunately. That’s a reality, not because Sabahans and Sarawakians were dumb but because majority of them were dirt poor. And they were freaking poor primarily because they were systematically denied their basic infrastructure – water, electricity, healthcare, roads, education.

Johor, on the other hand is blessed with not only basic infrastructure, but also pampered with a caring royal family – the Sultanate of Johor. There’re hardly any poor people in Johor, at least that was what Johoreans frequently claim. Whether this is an exaggerated statement or otherwise, the fact is Johoreans are much fortunate than Sabahans and Sarawakians.
Malaysia and Johor Flags
Many so-called experts and specialists say DAP, one of three component parties in opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR), is arrogant and stupid for rushing in declaring Pakatan Rakyat’s death. Really? Well, you may not realise it but DAP is perhaps the cleverest party among Pakatan Rakyat.

Let’s look at PR from the angle of stock trading. If PR is Felda Global Venture (KLSE: FGV, stock-code 5222), investor DAP had dumped the stock ages ago, in compliant with “loss-cutting” rules. When something goes wrong, you avoid holding rotten stocks. Investor PAS, on the other hand, is still holding FGV stock while declaring the company is not dead yet.
FGV - Stock Chart - 22June2015
True, FGV is not “officially” dead yet, but does it really matter when the share price has been deteriorating since its IPO, so much so that the stock has lost 60% of its value from IPO price of RM4.45 to the present RM1.75 a share? PAS’s hudud problems are like the FGV’s top management problems, period. So, who’s the better investor here?

Taking the cue from BN’s cheerleaders MCA and Gerakan tumbling support, DAP was smart enough to realise they cannot act dumb when PAS unleashed the “Hudud Law” weapon. To do that would mean DAP is no different from MCA or Gerakan. DAP’s survival depends on its 80% – 95%dominance of the Chinese votebank.
Malay Man With DAP Flag
DAP alone enjoys absolute 95% of Chinese votes; while UMNO, PKR, PAS are fighting tooth and nail sharing 95% of Malay votes. And soon, there may be a new PASMA fighting for the same cake. The louder DAP trumpets its displeasure about hudud, the better it is in locking the Chinese supports. Pure and simple.

The party also realises that it needs to find replacement of lost Malay votes resulting from its rivalries with PAS. DAP has to move forward instead of beating around the bush engaging in a nagging and bitching contest with PAS. And that could be the message from DAP brilliant strategist – Liew Chin Tong– about the party’s next step.
Malaysia 13 General Election - Kluang Liew Chin Tong
However, DAP knows the party cannot take over the federal government on its own. It has to work with non-extremist parties such as PKR and build new alliances such as PASMA. Still, there’s no guarantee that PKR would not be wiped out, or follows PAS step – such as a betrayal by Selangor Chief Minister Azmin Ali by joining forces with PAS and UMNO.

All possibilities have been calculated. That’s why DAP is recruiting smart and progressive Malays like crazy. The plan was to form alliances while at the same time grow its Malay talents base. And that’s exactly why pro-Najib, pro-Mahathir, pro-PAS, pro-UMNO bloggers are dead worry hence accuse DAP of being Chinese chauvinists. DAP is very strong indeed, hence the needs to weaken it.
Johor Darul Tazim
The latest strategy from DAP is to take over Johor state. What? Is this the craziest and dumbest plan ever, considering Johor is UMNO’s strongest fortress? For God sake, the original UMNO was established in this state. Well, judging by the latest fiasco between the Johor Palace and UMNO, the arrogant political party could lose its Johor fixed deposit.

Actually, it wasn’t just about Gangster Nazri Aziz threatening Johor Crown Prince, Tunku Ismail Ibrahim with a “whack”, or the Sultan Ibrahim’s criticism about UMNO government’s pathetic education system, that clouds the relationship between them. There were also business dealsland grabs andNajib incompetency that contribute to the problems.
13 General Election - State Seats Performance 2008 vs 2013
PAS contested 31 state seats in Johor during the 2013 general election, but won only 4 seats. DAP contested 14 seats and won 13; while PKR contested 11 seats and won 1. In order to form a simple majority state government, you need to win at least 29 seats in the Johor 56 state seats government.
2013 General Election - Johor State Seats Won by Barisan Nasional
Looking at the statistics above, Najib administration could lose 11 Johor state seats in the event of a 5% votes swing in favour of the opposition, reducing BN to just 27 seats from the present 38. Interestingly, these 11 seats were made of 37% to 72% of Malay voters. In an extreme situation of 5% to 10% swing, UMNO could lose another 12 seats. Either way, UMNO is dead meat.
2013 General Election - Johor State Seats Won by Pakatan Rakyat
Of course, the opposition could easily lose 9 state seats too, with a 5% votes swing; and another 4 seats in case of up to 10% swing. However, based on the present anti-Najib administration sentiment and the Permatang Pauh and Rompin by-election results, the money is on the table that UMNO has a better chance of losing its votes.

Should Emperor Najib be advised to “terminate” his own deputy prime minister Muhyiddin, hence triggering an internal crisis within UMNO, its influence in Johor would be further eroded. As a warlord of Johor, Muhyiddin’s sacking could cause protest votes to swing into opposition’s piggie-bank.Muhyiddin has nothing to lose by sabotaging Najib.
Muhyiddin Yassin - Malaysia Deputy Prime Minister
After all, Mahathir and Muhyiddin’s philosophy is – “if you cannot beat them, destroy their toys”. The question is – can the Sultan of Johor accept a non-UMNO state government? On paper, it seems members of the royal house areopen-minded and belong to the progressive generation.
Sultan Ismail Ibrahim - Normal Wear
The perception is the royalty prefers good governance above anything else, and that’s comforting. Thus, while an independence of Kingdom of Johor may not happen at all, UMNO could still lose Johor through ballot box. If the Sultanate of Johor supports a non-UMNO government, literally UMNO is game over in this state.

That’s precisely why DAP creates smokescreen in Selangor but quietly aiming for Johor. Using Penang and Selangor as a successful role model (minus PAS), a new opposition alliance could re-create the once short-lived Perak PR government in Johor. Fortunately, Johoreans do not treasure extremism.
Sultanate of Johor - Family Members Photo Session
Perhaps that explains why PAS did terribly bad during the last general election, despite the party being the most Islamic of all. Considering the 4 seats won by PAS in Johor has Chinese voters to the tune of 42% to 47%, PASMA could pocket these seats at the expense of PAS, assuming a new alliance of DAP-PASMA or DAP-PASMA-PKR can work seamlessly. -financetwitter

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.