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Thursday, June 18, 2015

DAP : No More Pakatan

This is from The Star :
  • DAP has declared Pakatan Rakyat no longer exists
  • accepted PAS muktamar’s motion to sever ties with DAP 
  • PAS motion killed off Pakatan
  • Pakatan therefore ceases to exist
  • decision made CEC meeting Monday night
  • pact near-paralysis several times during past year 
  • because Hadi violated decisions agreed upon 
  • exacerbated by Hadi’s unity govt with Umno 
  • even after Tabung Haji funds used to purchase land from 1MDB
  • Lim said DAP will work with PKR and all other forces
My comments :  Well PAS is not UMNO.  But in my view this is a fantastic strategic move by the DAP.

My view is if Najib remains in power, two parties will lose big in 2018 ie UMNO and PAS.   They are both out of date and totally out of touch with reality.

UMNO will not maintain its 88 seats. Maybe UMNO will go down to 70 seats or worse.

There is some consensus that MCA, MIC and Gerakan will be wiped out, quite completely. That is 12 Parliamentary seats. And most if not all of these 12 seats will be picked up by the DAP.

The PAS too will not fare much better than the number of seats they already have.
In 2013 the DAP secured 38 seats, PKR 30 and the PAS won 21 Parliamentary seats only.   Here is something more relevant. These three parties contested the following number of seats :

DAP    51 won 38 (74% success rate)
PKR    99 won 30 (30% success rate)
PAS     73 won 21 (28% success rate) 

This breakup in the Pakatan is actually a break up between the DAP and PAS and to some extent a break between the PKR and PAS.  The odd man out in Pakatan is PAS. Not the DAP and not PKR.


There is no break between the DAP and PKR. If anything the DAP-PKR bonds are stronger.  

In 2018 PKR will likely increase their Parliamentary seats too. They will maintain Selangor as well. (Or win it back - which may not be necessary either - I think the Pakatan will remain in Selangor).

To my UMNO friends, if Selangor goes for a snap election now, the PKR and DAP will clean sweep Selangor ok. Maybe then UMNO will understand GST 101 and 1MDB 102. UMNO will be wiped out in Selangor. Better watch out.

My view is come 2018. DAP  will be the biggest winner in Parliament.  DAP and PKR will field candidates in the 7 MCA areas, the 4 MIC areas and even in that Gerakan seat in Teluk Intan. That is 12 seats.  DAP by itself can clean sweep all these 12 seats. So 38 + 12 = 50 seats already. (Ini agak-agak saja ok, you can plus or minus if you want).

On top of this the DAP is eyeing 8 more Parliamentary seats : 4 in the Peninsula, 2 in Sabah and 2 in Sarawak. So 50 + 8 = 58 seats. 

I think on a sunny day in 2018,  the DAP may get 50 to 58 Parliamentary seats.  

The PKR is also going to do better than their present 30 seats in Parliament.

With Pas out of the Pakatan, DAP and PKR will also be free to field candidates in PAS held areas. PKR may get more of those seats. This is if PKR does not cooperate with Pas.  PKR will field more Malay candidates.  Another 10 seats is not too difficult for them.

DAP and PKR may end up somewhere close to 90 seats in Parliament. Still not enough to form the government. Short of  just over 20 seats?

This is where Sabah and Sarawak are going to play a big role. 

I dont think the Sarawak guys are too infatuated with UMNO and the BN anymore.  The same applies to many in Sabah.  This banner greeted Najib in Kuching most recently :




Those balloons are in the Sarawak state colours.  Jangan main.

This is from the Wikipedia. The 2013 election results.




To me this part of the table is interesting :



Ignoring Gerakan there are 33 seats in Sarawak and Sabah which have less and less reason to give any more respect or regard to the Clueless fellow in Putrajaya. 

If around 20 of these 33 seats leave the BN and decide to team up with the DAP/PKR the government can change.

Will Adenan Satem and all his 14 Parliamentarians continue supporting Najib? Or Mr James Masing and his six seats? James Masing is leader of the 'Parti Rakyat Sarawak'.  Almost 100% of their MPs and State Assemblyman are Iban Christian. As I said, jangan main.

In Sarawak, Muslims make up less than 25% of the population. In Sabah, after Project IC, the proportion of Muslims is about 50%. 

If Najib does not resign, the future of Malaysia lies with the DAP / PKR, Sarawak and Sabah.

So bagi sahabat-sahabat UMNO dalam bulan puasa ini berdoa-lah panjang-panjang sikit minta hidayah untuk makan telur lebih sikit.  Kalau tidak, belajarlah bercakap bahasa Iban. Ngap sayot. 

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