IN ANWAR'S P PAUH, NAJIB LOOKS FOR SAVIOR: But for how long will Dr M stay his hand

The Permatang Pauh by-election has turned into a circus. And it is not by accident at all. Let's face it, P Pauh is Prime Minister Najib Razak's last chance to reverse the tide turning against him in Umno. He needs a strong result, in fact nothing short of a clear win, to stop or delay what many Malay pundits believe - his inevitable political demise - from taking place.

But P Pauh is the long-time stronghold of Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim and most are expecting a landslide win for his wife Wan Azizah, who is also well-liked in the constituency. What chance has Najib in Anwar's lair?

Zero is the actual answer. But these are not normal times in Malaysia.

A political tsunami is taking place right under our very eyes. Pas president Hadi Aawang has all but formally announced his party's merger or alliance with Umno. As such, PKR can be brought down by Pakatan's own internal sabotage despite the wave of anti-GST sentiment, the widespread unhappiness with Najib's role in the 1MDB debacle and his daughter's mega wedding.

Each morning when we pick up the papers, there is one ridiculous story or other of some PKR or Wan Azizah ineptness. Money is a powerful incentive and 'udang galah' or lobsters caught from the village ponds are no match to Umno's slick propaganda machinery.

A sharp drop in voter turnout will also make it all the more tough for Azizah to win. Even before a single vote is cast, she and DAP's Lim Guan Eng know the odds are against them. Anwar's magnificent majority will already be whittled down by the low voter turnout. Throw in Umno's propaganda and election goodies blitz and you have the current unstable situation in P Pauh.

This is not to say Azizah will lose for sure, but the odds are not safe for her and Pakatan. But will this really benefit Najib?

'Emperor' Najib the hero at P Pauh, but how long will Dr M wait

Many Umno insiders say if the Umno candidate is able to decisively cut PKR's majority, the Najib camp will rush to claim a 'moral victory'. This will be blown up by the Umno media and Najib will be paraded as the hero who grabbed this advance for their party even as his chief critic Dr Mahathir Mohamad lashed out at him.

So imagine, if Umno scored an upset victory at P Pauh! Najib will indeed as the 'Emperor' and Dr M's camp will have to back off. That is for sure. However, Najib euphoria is unlikely to last long.

At 90, Dr M is not going to twiddle his thumbs waiting to get back into the game. He will create his own opportunities - as is his usual style. Perhaps after a rest of weeks, maybe even less than a month, there will be even more shocking bombshells dropped. Najib's alleged wrongdoings at 1MDB and perhaps in the Altantuya murder case will leaked out with greater details.

Theft, robbery and murder can only be ignored for so long - even in the 'good pirate ship' Umno. Allegations must be probed and seen to be probed. So, the wind is up and Najib has to go. He is already going ...going...gone. Warlords who may stop to praise him if he wins at P Pauh will once again pick up the tack to demand for clarity in the 1MDB scandal. Deals will continue to be made with the Mahathir camp.

See, P Pauh - no matter how much of a circus Umno has made it into - will only give Najib some small respite. A new order, with new fruits and goodies beckon for Umno's greedy warlords.

Getting rid of Najib - not so simple as an internal Umno affair

If Anwar's critics say it is time to freeze his family's hold on political power for good, the time is even more ripe for Najib's ouster. After nearly 6 years in power, many in Umno believe it is time for someone else to get a chance to rule Malaysia.

And it's not only the PM's seat they are eyeing but all the cushy Cabinet posts, government jobs etc. Time for men like Ahmad Maslan, Hasan Malek and Ismail Sabri to make way for smarter and more capable warlords, right? This is how the corrupt Umno cookie crumbles.

For the rest of Malaysia, Najib's farewell will also be much anticipated. There is the sense that Mahathir cannot oust Najib with just Muhyiddin and the other Umno warlords alone.

Even if Dr M did, he needs to set in a new power equation in the country or the moment he passes on, there will be even greater chaos in Malaysia.

For Umno is filled by fools, sorry to say. The intellect level in Umno is simply not enough to govern Malaysia and no way, those in power will open the door for bright and smart young Malays. For example, is Pak Lah's son-in-law Kahiry Jamaluddin free from corruption, where does he get his alleged billions to buy his Bentleys and so forth, one wonders.

See, Dr M must do something more than just oust Najib and install Muhyiddin in his place. When Mahathir pushed out Abdullah Badawi, he was 84. He won't be 84 ever again. A new coalition government helmed by a surprise Umno PM is a possible solution. But first things first - Najib and his pack of foolish ministers, IGP included, must go. Enough is enough.

P Pauh circus, Umno the ringmaster

Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi announced that RM200K will be allocated to RELA for new uniforms if the Umno/BN candidate Datuk Hasan Arifin wins the parliamentary by-election in Rompin, Pahang.

Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob then announced that if PKR candidate wins in the Permatang Pauh parliamentary by-election, then he would not grant approvals for agriculture-related projects for the area.

The above are the in-built mentality of Umno leaders; their only Standard Operating Procedures (S.O.P) on how to win votes. Umno leaders refused to improve their performance, refused to improve things in the country, refused to deliver what they promised and refused changing for the better. But they keep on making mistakes and blunders.

Therefore their S.O.P for winning votes are by both bribing the people and threatening them. By doing these, Umno/BN has lost its integrity and not practicing real democracy.

By threatening the people it is akin to dictatorship, where people have no choice but to vote for the party or leader who has long been in power by force, whether they like it or not.

Home Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (centre) says developments brought by Barisan Nasional in Rompin can only continue if BN wins the upcoming by-election.

However when the voters are promised any form of rewards, from trivial things like the sarong, a bag of cement, RM50, uniforms to things of value like schools, roads, bridges and utility supplies, by every definition it is a form of bribery.

But as mentioned above that is what Umno could do and good at. Threat and bribe! This is the copyrighted trade mark of Umno.

Of course even nowadays there are still many people who would be afraid of the threat and be lured by the bribe, but many people especially the younger generation have also changed and opened their minds, more so when the older generation has passed on.

Malaysian voters are not that easily swayed by the threat and bribe anymore. They are longing for a change in government and are fed up with the backward thinking Umno of bribing and threatening. Malaysians want a government who can deliver and give them a better deal.

Reinforcing a backwards mentality for the Malays

On the other hand, this is what backward thinking Umno leaders is all about. They are only thinking of rewards for themselves; how much money they can get and siphon out from the national coffers.

Umno leaders think that the people have the same kind of backward mentality. The way Umno leaders threat and bribe are insults to our intelligence.

They think that by giving the people some trivial things or token gifts, we will forget the purported RM42 billion losses by 1MDB, forget about the murder of Altantuya Shaariibuu, forget about how Datuk Seri Najib Razak continued with golfing in Hawaii when the people were inundated by floods, forget about the new RM465 jet plane and the extravagant flower themed wedding of Najib’s daughter.

Ahmad Zahid Hamidi may think that by rewarding RELA with new uniforms, the people will forget his gambling kingpin friend Paul Phua and vote ‘clean’ Umno. Ismail Sabri also could be thinking that the people especially the Chinese will forget how he blamed the Chinese business community for the price increases and vote ‘non-racist’ Umno.

The people in Rompin and Permatang Pauh are not stupid anymore. It is not a straight forward by-election like before. Still Umno/BN could win in Rompin and even in Permatang Pauh, but that would only be with the help of the Election Commission and with the full force of the government machineries. With some sort of manipulation and tricks Umno/BN could win but they would not consider that as cheating.

By the way, cheating is ‘haram’ (forbidden) in Islam and Umno ulamas (Muslim Scholars) would not consider bribing, threatening and manipulating in elections as ‘haram’. But that again is another story. - MAILBAG