SILENT MAJORITY: Really the moderates, the Malaysian Malaysia OR the hardliners & Malays-only Malaysia

The appearance of the Group of 25 has been much discussed in the past month or so. Having a group of distinguished former civil servants and civil society members come out to protest against the increasing radicalisation of Malaysia has been a boon to the members of the public who are worried about the direction the country is taking. It gives voice to our concerns when nobody would listen. And now that the very extremists bent on taking the country ever closer to the edge have retaliated against that voice of reason, we have more than enough proof that the 25 Eminents chose exactly the right time to make themselves and their cause known.

Even so, we must temper our optimism with caution. Are we, the moderates of Malaysia, really as numerous as we like to think? Common sense usually would dictate that due to the principles of common decency, most people exist somewhere in the middle spectrum of the political divide, though leaning to either the conservative or liberal in varying shades. But it’s dangerous to assume anything is a given fact without the proper research to back it up, and we have no real evidence that Malaysia’s population is indeed generally moderate.

Let’s go back to the GE13 polling figures. Some 53% of the voting population cast their ballot for Pakatan Rakyat, and 47% voted for the incumbent government. Putting aside the question of who should have won, we’re tempted to assume that the 53% figure means 53% of the voting public is indeed moderate or liberal, as the opposition likes to label itself. We must take into account the presence of PAS, which helped Pakatan garner votes in the rural Malay heartland with its espousal of traditional, conservative, Islamic values.

What exactly is PAS’ voter base like? Does it lean towards the ulama faction or the Erdogans, and on what extent to each side? How many of those who voted PAS buy into the hudud push and agree with, for instance, the Kelantan law that forbids men and women from using the same supermarket checkout counter? These are pertinent questions when considering the future of Pakatan, a Pakatan that may not see PAS standing beside PKR and DAP at the next general election, hence taking away its ability to enter the heartland and removing its appeal to the rural voters.

The Erdogans have shown themselves to be more moderate and a lot more tractable to their colleagues in Pakatan Rakyat than the strict ulama faction. But with the power shifting to the ulama faction last year, it has become increasingly clear that a moderate approach is unwelcome, at least within the PAS elite. How great an influence will that have on the supporters of the party? Although we cannot be certain, it’s highly possible that the number of conservatives flocking to PAS will increase. That will make it an even more savoury target for Umno, which has made overtures at a unity government with PAS at several junctures.

It has to be mentioned that there are undoubtedly some moderates in the 47% that voted for Barisan Nasional in 2013, but the sum total of moderates in Malaysia remains a question that is very much up in the air.

In our euphoria of finally finding our voices, we must not forget that moderate Malaysia is indeed extremely young, and we have no idea how many or how few we are. Even as the movement begins to grow, our hopes have to be kept in check as we discover more and more of the character of our fledgling voice. We should not risk being overconfident in ourselves. The real struggle is only just beginning and we must guard against false hope. - FMT