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Monday, September 22, 2014

All Hail Azmin Ali, MB of Selangor – Wenger Khairy


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Azmin Ali has now been installed as odds-on favourite to be the next menteri besar and baring any final sting in this drama, everybody should pipe down and accept it.
The reason is simple and requires a person who is completely out of the picture to articulate it.
As a new menteri besar, Azmin will get some sort of “bump” from the electorate.
The only ones making the most noise right are the far-right fringes led by people such as Datuk Zulkifli Noordin and the Mushiyiridul Am of Tibai.
But this set cannot fight with the sultan as they have portrayed themselves as the most loyal of subjects, and the standard to which everybody else must be measured. Their objection is the most irrelevant and a side show that can be ignored.
The second threat may come from those who object to Azmin out of principle.
There are two kinds of principles they may allude to. The first principle is that the sultan should choose someone who has the confidence of the majority of representatives in the Selangor assembly.
They argue that Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail is the only such person.
The second principle is that they may have misgivings over Azmin from a personal view point.
Let’s address both objections.
For the first one, the only way is to step outside the office, take a trip down to some of the low-cost housing areas in Shah Alam, or the kampuns near Banting and ask yourself a simple question. “How would the Malays feel if you opposed the sultan?” The answer – not too pleased.
We don’t elect people to be leaders if they cannot understand some simple political calculus. Some simple sort of “risk reward” or “cost benefit” analysis. 
By all counts, the sultan was quite happy with Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim, but Khalid’s position was untenable when Pakatan Rakyat pulled off the statutory declaration stunt.
That stunt so rankled Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang that he still cannot get over it.
So Khalid had to go, but it seems that a clear line is been drawn in the sand, that under no way shape or form will Dr Wan Azizah be made MB.
Now, I like to call this the log x pay off diagram as x approaches 0. 
As the probability of the event (i.e. Dr Wan Azizah becoming MB)  goes to 0, the payoff, or more  appropriately the cost goes to infinity. 
If DAP were to stand with PKR on this, they get smashed into oblivion and they will be viewed as being anti-royal and anti-Malay.
So DAP should reason and take stock. Under our current political environment, even Umno is deferential to the palace, so they should not gamble too much when then payoff looks poor and the odds of success, so slim.
Lastly, the third group which may oppose Azmin are the Anwar faction in PKR. They will see this as marking the death of Datuk Seri Anwar’s influence in the party, and with that they may see their entire political futures go up in flames.
This group is the most radicalised and the ones who are unable to stop, think and reassess.  To them, there is no upper limit to the cost and by hook, or by crook, their wishes need to be made.
Of course, Anwar had promised to retire from politics  so it’s about time we kept him to his word. No more manoeuvrings, no more strategies – even Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had to go when he had to go, so it’s about Anwar follow suit.
The end game, however, does not involve these players. They involve the PKR assemblymen who have a political brain, DAP and the PAS assemblymen.
They can immediately coalesce around Azmin and pledge to support his government or they can bring the whole state and country to indulge in a game of PKR internal politics.
* Wenger Khairy reads The Malaysian Insider.

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