`


THERE IS NO GOD EXCEPT ALLAH
read:
MALAYSIA Tanah Tumpah Darahku

LOVE MALAYSIA!!!


 


Monday, September 22, 2014

After MB impasse, snap polls could be death for Pakatan, say analysts

While PAS may be wiped out in any snap polls in Selangor, DAP and PKR may also lose some seats if the Islamist party decides to contest in their seats. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, September 22, 2014.While PAS may be wiped out in any snap polls in Selangor, DAP and PKR may also lose some seats if the Islamist party decides to contest in their seats. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, September 22, 2014.
Pakatan Rakyat (PR) is in danger of not only losing Selangor in possible state polls, but of breaking up if PAS accepts the Selangor menteri besar (MB) post, analysts say.
If the Selangor Sultan does appoint a PAS assemblyman tomorrow, a snap election could be triggered by a no-confidence vote when the legislative assembly holds its next sitting in November.
And PAS would likely be wiped out in the election over the way the party's president and conservative faction handled the MB impasse. They have said PAS would accept the post if it was given to them.
"If PAS takes on the MB job, it will precipitate state elections and this can potentially break up Pakatan as it goes against the agreement between the three parties. This will create an untenable situation," said Ibrahim Suffian, who heads pollster Merdeka Center.
The Star had reported that the Selangor Sultan held separate audiences with PKR deputy president Mohamed Azmin Ali, and PAS assemblymen Iskandar Samad and Dr Ahmad Yunus Hairi, to assess their suitability as the state's MB.
DAP and PKR, minus the incumbent MB Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim, have 28 seats in the 56-seat legislative assembly. With the support of two PAS assemblymen who have backed Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah for MB, the 30 legislators could table a vote of no-confidence against the new MB when the house sits in November, paving the way for a statewide election.
Ibrahim said there is a strong chance that PR could still win a snap poll if PAS were committed to the pact, but given the animosity over the MB imbroglio, it would be much harder now to forge the trust and cooperation they had in the past.
And in the event PAS turns hostile by contesting in seats held by PKR and DAP, this would lead to a split in Malay votes, and would benefit Barisan Nasional.
PAS would end up as the biggest loser, losing up to 14 of the 15 seats it currently holds, said Ibrahim.
Of the 15 seats, nine are marginal seats which the Islamist party won with a slim majority in last year's national polls.
Crucially, this also means PR will lose Selangor that it has governed since the 2008 general election, as it needs at least 29 seats to remain in power.
Without the support of PAS, PKR and even DAP might lose some seats they currently hold.
"PAS will undoubtedly be punished by voters for the way it handled the MB issue," said Ibrahim.
"If they had acted in concert from day one, the situation that we are seeing now would not have arisen."
Analyst Wan Saiful Wan Jan said there was a possibility that the current impasse might be further prolonged if Hadi wants PAS to accept the MB post, despite protests from its partners and some of its central leaders.
He advised PAS to think carefully of its future, especially its role within Malaysia's mainstream politics, noting the defiant tone Hadi took in his speech against his critics and over the MB impasse.
"If they feel that they want to be in Pakatan, they have to ensure they appoint leaders who reflect the aspiration of the party and remove those who go against that aspiration," said the head of think tank, Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas).
He said if another candidate other than Dr Wan Azizah was appointed, PR parties should then discuss their next course of action together.
The three parties needed to strategies together as the issue now involved the Selangor palace, which Wan Saiful said was still highly respected by a large section of society.
"I don't think it's a clever strategy to go against the palace. They need to sit and think it through. The more you antagonise the palace and the state establishment, the more people will see it's not worth it and if the crisis is prolonged, the risk of losing the state cannot be ignored," he said.
However, Professor James Chin believes PR will be more pragmatic. He doubted that they would risk snap polls without first sorting out their issues.
"There won't be any snap polls because the Pakatan parties are afraid of losing more seats. This entire debacle was triggered by internal politicking and they are unsure how the electorate would react given that this is not issue-driven," said the political analyst from Monash University Malaysia.
- TMI

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.